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Business leaders optimistic about recovery (From Swindon Advertiser)
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with 'SWINDON NEWS'
Business leaders optimistic about recovery
7:40am Wednesday 24th June 2009
FIRMS in Swindon say the end of the recession is in sight.
The survey of 78 companies conducted by the Swindon Strategic Economic Partnership (SSEP) shows that nearly half of them (45 per cent) expect sales to pick up in the next three months.
Meanwhile 58 per cent of the companies saw their sales in this country fall in the last three months, while more than one third are worried about cashflow.
Bill Cotton, director of economic development for Swindon Council, said: “It looks like things are not going to get worse and this is obviously very positive. On the back of that we have Honda reopening.”
The recession has hit Swindon hard, with 6,000 people out of work.
The town has seen 197 per cent more people claiming benefits in the last year.
“It has been very difficult and unemployment has been rising steeply, but now it is starting to plateau,“ said Mr Cotton.
The survey showed that nearly half of firms interviewed (45 per cent) don’t expect a change in business in the next quarter. The greatest concern is cashflow followed by the number of sales, keeping customers and staffing levels.
Financial adviser Gerry Reilly, of the Federation of Small Businesses, said: “We are seeing things beginning to improve with big companies and the banks are in recovery.
But banks are still asking companies to cut costs. The big companies are turning the corner and it is more positive in Swindon with big companies like Honda, Intel and Nationwide.
“But everybody is still very nervous. We feel the worst is over but we don’t want to shout, as conditions are still delicate.”
SSEP chairman Rikki Hunt said: “A good percentage of businesses are more positive and that bears out the conversation I am having with a lot of different business people.
“Business has stopped going back, which gives us encouragement that it may be bottoming out.
“We should not kid ourselves that the recession is over. We are still in a tough time.
“We took a big dive with employment in the town but I think we can come out of the recession quicker than others.
“That is what our feeling is and the survey supports that.”
The survey was carried out in conjunction with Swindon Chamber of Commerce, GWE Business West and the Federation of Small Businesses.
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Your Say YourSwindon
Casual Observer, Swindon says...
9:31am Wed 24 Jun 09
Mr Blackwell, Swindon says...
10:15am Wed 24 Jun 09
My work involves dealing with lots of retailers, almost all of them have been saying, all through the year, that they've been surprised at how (relatively) well things have been going... until the last month to six weeks.
Virtually all of them have reported retail sales literally halting completely, almost overnight.
My own belief is that we all thought that the first half of this year would be horrendous, yet it's been not quite as bad as expected. But the problem now is that the massive redundancies that have been happening over the last months are starting to take their toll.
Savings are running low, credit that people may have still had has been spent.
It's no surprise that the latest home repossession figures show a MASSIVE 62% increase on December 2008 (when Brown's recession was already in full swing).
I think we're seeing a delayed reaction and fear it's actually going to get significantly worse for the remainder of 2009 - especially with our lame duck government who have, admittedly, come up with plenty of solutions to the recession.
Our real problem is that none of them have worked.
Car sales are still in massive decline - what does this mean for Honda workers et al?
Retail is dead, with the summer quarter always being poor, this year it could spell the end for many more retailers.
I would dearly love to truly believe that the worst of the recession is over. The nation would benefit greatly from moving to a new era of government around the same time as the economy gets back on track.
I still believe things will be better by June 2010, but I fear it's going to be very difficult between now and then.
Bobfm, South Marston says...
10:31am Wed 24 Jun 09
But of course all those who speak from experience and those whose job it is to play up the economy are of course right, tell that to the next small printer, butcher, bake, candlestick maker, or publican who goes bust.
I was talking to a man from HMRC yesterday who was telling me that literally tens of thousands of small businesses are in 'special measures' arrangements. He said things were definitely getting worse.
ListenToReason, Swindon Metropolitan Area says...
12:41pm Wed 24 Jun 09
cfa, newcastle says...
2:33pm Wed 24 Jun 09
Sir Philip Hampton the new gaffer at RBS (70% public) will earn circa £9 million if he hits his targets.
Final salary pensions will be a thing of the past by about 2015, so we will all be able to work until we are in our 70s.
Repos, redunancies, bankruptcies, suicides, they are all on the up.
I'm sick of this doom & gloom.
Bobfm, South Marston says...
5:53pm Wed 24 Jun 09
Even the Monetary Policy Committee today said that the slight upturn could not be taken as the worst being over yet.
Bobfm, South Marston says...
6:01pm Wed 24 Jun 09
Even the Monetary Policy Committee today said that the slight upturn could not be taken as the worst being over yet.
What is also interesting and perhaps sums up the EU and US's attitude to China is this:
China, helped by a "major stimulus" package, should see growth of 7.7% this year, rising to 9.3% in 2010, both up from the March forecasts of 6.3% and 8.5% respectively. Indian growth is predicted to be 5.9% in 2010, accelerating to 7.2% in 2010.
So the very markets we would be free to trade with if outside the European Union are those who will have a strong growth and recovery next year.
Mr Blackwell, Swindon says...
6:38pm Wed 24 Jun 09
And he's, finally, blamed Brown and Labour for making this recession worse for Britain than for other nations.
Remind me again, how is Brown still prime minister?
Bobfm, South Marston says...
9:32am Thu 25 Jun 09
They know they are out next time, and in an interesting aside, UKIP in a Harris poll is predicted to get 10% in a General Election vote, 5 times greater than any previous GE poll in our history.
Mr Cameron and our local Tory candidates would do well not to just dismiss UKIP as they tried to do at the EU elections. We as a party are here to stay until we achieve our goal of leaving the EU. The LibLabCon will never deliver that.
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Bobfm, South Marston says...
8:03am Wed 24 Jun 09
Speaking to small business owners as I do on a regular basis, it is clear that things are not moving forward.
The banks are still not giving the support we are being told they are by HMG.
I have in fact asked Anne Snelgrove in her new role as PPS to Gordon Brown to enquire into the completely contradictory written proof I have of this.
I also know a couple of the towns most senior and long standing Independent Financial Advisers who both say the situation is not improving but going backwards. Many of their clients cannot see a future in their investments and are looking to withdraw from their pension plans.
We all want to see an upturn in business, that is vital for employment, but this upturn will not come to Swindon for sometime, one reason of course being the complete and utter disgrace of the Town Centre, and the fact that the Council is simply not listening to the people.