How will we cope with ageing population?

CONCERNS have been raised over the effect Government cuts will have on Swindon Council’s ability to provide services for the town’s rapidly growing elderly population.

The number of over-65s is expected to double over the next 25 years from 30,000 to nearly 60,000 – the highest percentage increase of any local authority in the west.

But at the same time, Swindon Council is having to reduce its bill for elderly care which costs around £16m a year and accounts for about 12 per cent of its budget.

Coun Brian Mattock warned there were significant “demand pressures” for adult social care.

He said: "All the forecasts are that they will continue in that upward direction.

“Obviously Government resources to local authorities, over the last three years, have been going in a downward direction – a 25 per cent to 30 per cent reduction – at the same time as the demand for adult social care has been going skywards.”

The cost of elderly care is estimated to be set to increase by £1million in Swindon next year.

Coun David Renard, deputy leader of Swindon Council, said: “We know that in order to meet this demand and to continue to protect the most vulnerable people in Swindon we need to prevent crisis and maintain independence by enabling people to make choices and do things for themselves.

“We also need to help people to build their skills and capabilities and to regain those skills that have been lost after an accident or illness.

“The council is conducting a demand enquiry programme across all partners working with adults and communities in Swindon to develop an understanding of the problems and issues and how we can address them.”

After the Second World War Swindon’s population was boosted by workers attracted by the town’s thriving industry and advances in diet and medicine mean many people live longer.

Mick Davis, 74, has three 15-minute visits from care workers a day and spends 23 hours alone.

He has chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which means he is attached permanently to an oxygen supply, and is one of 3,500 elderly people in Swindon who have their care paid for by the local authority.

He compared being stuck indoors to “like being in a jail cell”.

The council is examining the possibility of increasing its reliance on volunteers to offer services to the elderly.

Comments(11)

blahblahblahblah says...
9:50am Tue 16 Oct 12

Just lock them all in a big room with a large screen tv showing never ending repeats of antiques roadshow and downton abbey, a large supply of tea and digestives and forget about them. they'll be happy and we'll be economically better off and much safer on the roads.

I 2 Could B says...
10:03am Tue 16 Oct 12

This issue will only get worse. At the moment, a comination of unsustainable government borrowing and public spending has helped mask the problem. However, this is due to end once the UK is credit downgraded and the borrowing becomes more difficult.

Add to this the fact that the current generation of pensioners will be the last to have had conventional mortgages (rather than interest only) and will also have decent pension schemes and investments. Most people retiring over the coming years will have far less money to cushion them.

Make no mistake, times are going to get much, much tougher. If people think today's climate is 'austerity', they really are going to be in for a shock.

Still, anyone with a remotely realistic outlook knew this nonsense couldn't go on forever. 'Free' everything for everyone whilst also employing a policy of uncontrolled immigration? A rather obvious recipe for financial disaster. The welfare state could only ever have self-destruced, but what's interesting is just how quickly it's done it. Barely 70 years (and actually far less if you judge things on a level playing field and remove the borrowing element - the only thing that's kept this country going for the past 15 years).

swindondad says...
1:38pm Tue 16 Oct 12

The rising cost of social care for the elderly will mirror the rise in pension cost and these rises are unsustainable under the current system.
Figure for social care are harder to find over a historic time frame but a look at pension provision is enlightening.
The state old age pensions in the UK came into place as a result of the 1908 pensions act. This provided a pension for anyone over the age of 70 at a rate of 5 shillings a week for singles or 7 and a half shillings for a couple. This pension was means tested and only available to UK residence who had been British subjects for at least 20 years and who were of “good character”.
As you can see not only was the purchase power of the pension lower, the qualification criteria stricter and the start age older. It should also be noted that average school leaving age at the time was 14 so to have got the pension you would have worked for 56 years. That would have been no mean feat when average life expectancy was under 50.
As a nation we do need to find a way to provide for the elderly both with their pensions and there social / medical care

I 2 Could B says...
2:22pm Tue 16 Oct 12

swindondad wrote:
As a nation we do need to find a way to provide for the elderly both with their pensions and there social / medical care

But this is the crux of the problem... for too long in this country we have delayed the necessary decisons, mainly because the unpalatable truth is that the current welfare state and benefits system is not sustainable.

We cannot simply go on as we are pretending everything will just be 'OK'. Equally, the reality is that there's nothing immediately obvious as to what actually can be done to find a way to make things work.

Already, 53% of households receive more from the State than they contribute. That is a quite astonishing figure. Those who do make a net contribution are already being taxed as heavily as it's realistic to do. Any delusional notions that the 'rich' and the 'bankers' can fund it all are just more of the same nonsense that's brought us to where we are already.

The UK's public sector spending on social security and benefits is now only possible due to massive borrowing, which, despite what Labour and their union leaders may tell you, is still increasing. The government is still borrowing and still spending more than it has at any other time in history.

People may think it can go on like this indefinitely, but it can't. Eventually, we will end up in a position similar to Greece, Spain and Italy.

Unfortunately, there is no political will to do anything about it. The Tories know they cannot win the next election and so will run things into the ground further so that the **** really hits the fan about 2 years into the next Labour government's period of office.

Miliband and his cronies will have nowhere to run, nowhere to hide and nobody left to borrow from. Things are going to get much, much worse.

RichardR1 says...
6:21pm Tue 16 Oct 12

I 2 Could B I agree with your post and what is the most galling is that the current group of pensioners and those of us shortly to be so have provided for our futures by contributing for many years in the belief the money would be ring fenced rather than squandered.

Perhaps pensions should be be put out totally to private providers for the current generation of workers, releasing them from the added cost burden imposed by the state, and leave the rest to fend for themselves, on the state.

semitonic says...
8:56pm Tue 16 Oct 12

I 2 Could B wrote:
swindondad wrote:
As a nation we do need to find a way to provide for the elderly both with their pensions and there social / medical care

But this is the crux of the problem... for too long in this country we have delayed the necessary decisons, mainly because the unpalatable truth is that the current welfare state and benefits system is not sustainable.

We cannot simply go on as we are pretending everything will just be 'OK'. Equally, the reality is that there's nothing immediately obvious as to what actually can be done to find a way to make things work.

Already, 53% of households receive more from the State than they contribute. That is a quite astonishing figure. Those who do make a net contribution are already being taxed as heavily as it's realistic to do. Any delusional notions that the 'rich' and the 'bankers' can fund it all are just more of the same nonsense that's brought us to where we are already.

The UK's public sector spending on social security and benefits is now only possible due to massive borrowing, which, despite what Labour and their union leaders may tell you, is still increasing. The government is still borrowing and still spending more than it has at any other time in history.

People may think it can go on like this indefinitely, but it can't. Eventually, we will end up in a position similar to Greece, Spain and Italy.

Unfortunately, there is no political will to do anything about it. The Tories know they cannot win the next election and so will run things into the ground further so that the **** really hits the fan about 2 years into the next Labour government's period of office.

Miliband and his cronies will have nowhere to run, nowhere to hide and nobody left to borrow from. Things are going to get much, much worse.
Don't worry, it'll be fine.

1 2 Could B says...
7:24am Wed 17 Oct 12

RichardR1 wrote:
I 2 Could B I agree with your post and what is the most galling is that the current group of pensioners and those of us shortly to be so have provided for our futures by contributing for many years in the belief the money would be ring fenced rather than squandered.

Perhaps pensions should be be put out totally to private providers for the current generation of workers, releasing them from the added cost burden imposed by the state, and leave the rest to fend for themselves, on the state.
Robfm publicly stated that he was about to retire too
?

Many people will have worked hard, but in short term situations.

Those people will have limited pension funds through no fault of their own

RichardR1 says...
10:13am Wed 17 Oct 12

1 " I'm sure thousands have said they would be retiring soon, unlike your comment I didn't state I was about to retire.

Delusional obsession once again.

I 2 Could B says...
9:10am Thu 18 Oct 12

1 2 Could B wrote:
RichardR1 wrote: I 2 Could B I agree with your post and what is the most galling is that the current group of pensioners and those of us shortly to be so have provided for our futures by contributing for many years in the belief the money would be ring fenced rather than squandered. Perhaps pensions should be be put out totally to private providers for the current generation of workers, releasing them from the added cost burden imposed by the state, and leave the rest to fend for themselves, on the state.
Robfm publicly stated that he was about to retire too ? Many people will have worked hard, but in short term situations. Those people will have limited pension funds through no fault of their own
'Working hard', in itself, is a fairly meaningless concept. Would you respect a person who spends 15 hours a day manually digging holes in fields for no reason?

Also, everyone has the freedom to pay into a personal pension scheme if they so choose.

How can it possibly be 'somebody else's fault' that a given individual hasn't made any pension provisions for themselves?

RichardR1 says...
11:15am Thu 18 Oct 12

'Also, everyone has the freedom to pay into a personal pension scheme if they so choose.'

A very simplistic notion if I may venture to suggest. To do that you need to have earnings over and above your everyday needs, aside from the fact experts now say 30% at least should be set aside.

Quite an impossible task if you still have to pay NI at current levels. Drop the NI contribution on condition people invest the equivalent into a private pension, then people would see what their money really buys, rather than the depleted value of given it to Government.

I 2 Could B says...
12:55pm Thu 18 Oct 12

As I've said throughout the thread, the current welfare/benefit system is completely unsustainable. It's been that way for at least 15 years and will only get worse as more and more people enter retirement with no pension to speak of and with the outstanding balance on their homes with no way of paying it off.

The real kicker is that we've already sold out at least two future generations who will be paying taxes simply to pay off the last decade of borrowing. They have no chance of paying for the welfare state of their own era and even less of providing for their pensions.

The entire system is like a bad Ponzi scheme but where absolutely nobody, at all, wins in the long term.

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