North and South Swindon will be Conservative seats again at the end of December 12, according to YouGov.

The MRP poll – using a technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification – was published by the Times,and shows a constituency by constituency model.

In North Swindon, Justin Tomlinson is predicted to gain 53 per cent of the vote. Pollsters say his share could be as low as 45 per cent, but as high as 60 per cent.

Labour opponent Kate Linnegar is said to be on course for a 35 per cent share, with a highest possible figure of 43 per cent – not enough to topple the Tories.

In South Swindon, Robert Buckland is predicted to hold his seat with 52 per cent of the vote. His lowest estimate is 44 per cent, with the highest being 60 per cent.

If Sarah Church is to win the seat for Labour she would need to reach her highest estimate of 46 per cent.

But YouGov is predicting a share of 39 per cent – a 13 per cent difference between the two, compared to 18 per cent in North Swindon.

To create the poll, YouGov conducted 100,319 interviews across seven days with registered voters from the YouGov panel.

The estimates included the interviews as well as analysis of key demographics, past voting behaviour and the likely turnout.