A Swindon-based academic has predicted a near redwash in the local borough council elections.
Dr Andrew Barnes lives in Swindon but works at the University of Bath as a lecturer in computer science.
In his spare time, he has applied himself to modelling results of elections in Swindon based on national polling results.
LIVE COVERAGE: Swindon election results as they come in
In February Dr Barnes, who said he used to be a member of the Conservative Party but who is clearly now not a supporter of the party tweeted: “Last year I was so close to predicting the results perfectly so I return with new and improved models.
“Essentially, no matter which way you cut the numbers we're currently looking at a Labour landslide.”
The intervening months have done little to change his mind, but Dr Barnes used his method of interpreting national polling data to predict the maximum vote share for each party.
And if he’s right, then it looks like Friday will be a good day for Labour.
There are some things to note about Dr Barnes’ predictions: because he’s predicting the high and low range of votes per party, they don’t always add up to 100 per cent.
For example, in Priory Vale he predicts the maximum Labour vote to be 60.71 per cent, but he predicts the Conservatives maximum to be 50.39 per cent. If either party match that, the other one, by definition, cannot.
Looking at the predicted maximum vote share of all parties, Labour is predicted to win 14 of the 19 seats up for grabs, the Conservatives holding on to only three and the Liberal Democrats winning one.
The predicted shares for each ward are:
Blunsdon & Highworth
Labour: 39 per cent
Conservative: 48 per cent
Lib Dem: 8 per cent
Green: 12 per cent
Central
Labour 90 per cent
Conservative 41 per cent
Lib Dem 9 per cent
Green
Chiseldon & Lawn
Labour: 43 per cent
Conservative: 40 per cent
Lib Dem: 22 per cent
Green
Covingham & Dorcan
Labour: 38 per cent
Conservative: 55 per cent
Lib Dem: 6 per cent
Green 3 per cent
Eastcott
Labour: 68 per cent
Conservative: 15 per cent
Lib Dem: 54 per cent
Green: 3 per cent
Gorse Hill & Pinehurst
Labour: 75 per cent
Conservative: 28 per cent
Lib Dem: 5 per cent
Green: 11 per cent
Haydon Wick
Labour: 53 per cent
Conservative: 43 per cent
Lib Dem: 3 per cent
Green
Liden, Eldene & Park South
Labour: 66 per cent
Conservative: 36 per cent
Lib Dem: 7 per cent
Green
Lydiard & Freshbrook
Labour: 65 per cent
Conservative: 45 per cent
Lib Dem: 6 per cent
Green
Mannington & Western
Labour: 76 per cent
Conservative: 27 per cent
Lib Dem 9 per cent
Green
Old Town
Labour: 75 per cent
Conservative: 34 per cent
Lib Dem: 8 per cent
Green: 8 per cent
Penhill & Upper Stratton
Labour: 64 per cent
Conservative: 37 per cent
Lib Dem: 7 per cent
Green
Priory Vale
Labour: 61 per cent
Conservative: 50 per cent
Lib Dem: 4 per cent
Green: 6 per cent
Rodbourne Cheney
Labour: 70 per cent
Conservative: 34 per cent
Lib Dem: 4 per cent
Green: 6 per cent
Shaw
Labour: 50 per cent
Conservative: 41 per cent
Lib Dem: 4 per cent
Green
St Andrews
Labour: 41 per cent
Conservative 45 per cent
Lib Dem: 5 per cent
Green: 17 per cent
St Margaret & South Marston
Labour: 63 per cent
Conservative: 42 per cent
Lib Dem: 2 per cent
Green: 6 per cent
Walcot & Park North
Labour: 78 per cent
Conservative: 28 per cent
Lib Dem: 10 per cent
Green
Wroughton & Wicheslstowe
Labour: 18 per cent
Conservative: 40 per cent
Lib Dem: 46 per cent
Green: 14 per cent
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