Swindon Town have some improving to do if they are to fulfil their promotion ambitions, if their previous campaigns are anything to go by.
14 matches into the League Two season, and it has been anything but plain sailing so far. An injury crisis, an extended goal drought, and tensions between manager and supporters have made for a difficult start to proceedings.
But Swindon entered the campaign set on making up for the mistakes of last year and ending the club’s longest-ever stay in the fourth tier.
At this stage of the season, in a bizarrely muddled League Two, they are still in touch with the promotion places.
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Having taken 19 points from 14 games, they are 13th in the table, but just one point behind York City at the bottom of the playoffs, and three points behind Walsall in the last automatic promotion spot.
Seldom has the division been this tight, as third to 15th is covered by just four points. The gap from 23rd to sixth is greater than the gap from sixth to first, as Salford City have begun to gallop clear.
However, things have rarely stayed so congested for long, as the points total needed to make the playoffs generally lands in the mid-70s, and in the low 80s for automatic promotion.
Compared to last year, when Swindon got off to a particularly hot start, they are presently off the pace, as by this stage a year ago, Town had 26 points, seven more than they have now, and were second in the table with a three-point cushion to the playoff places and level on points with top of the table.
When Ben Garner led the club to the playoffs in 2021/22, that team had four more points than they do now and were inside the top seven, and just one point from the automatic promotion places.
Similarly to this year, Forest Green Rovers had already separated themselves at the top, and were seven points clear of Town.
But they are not far off where Richie Wellens’ points-per-game title winners, who had two more points than Swindon have now, and also experienced a tough run, failing to win four games in a row.
They were five points off the top three, further than Swindon are right now, and eight points off the top.
Paolo Di Canio’s team overcame their four-match losing streak early in the season to amass 22 points after 14 games and were one point off the playoffs, as Swindon are now, with a four-point gap to the top three.
In 2006/07, when Swindon won promotion from League Two, they already had 28 points and a four-point cushion to the playoffs.
Based on these past runs, Holloway’s team are a little bit behind where they need to be in terms of points, but their track position is not in the worst place, with the gaps between clubs this term so thin, so they are not having to close gaps that have already formed.
This time of the year has tended to be crucial for previous promotions, as Swindon got hot as the weather turned cold.
Di Canio and Wellens’ teams hit form at around this mark, with the side of Eoin Doyle and Jerry Yates taking the spark of that late win over Stevenage in game 15 to embark on a run of seven straight wins, whilst Matt Ritchie and company went undefeated in ten games up until Boxing Day. Then, after defeat to Torquay United, they rattled off ten wins in a row.
Holloway’s side are four undefeated at present, and if they can use that to embark on a run of strong form, then they may be able to emulate some past success.
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