WHILE the pollsters are saying it is not possible to call the South Swindon seat winner, most bookies say the Conservative will win – just.

Today Lord Ashcroft released his latest round of 'swing' seat polls showing Robert Buckland was leading by one point over his Labour rival Anne Snelgrove.

However, he said these figures could be an anomaly and the outcome was not certain.

Writing on his website, he said: “South Swindon is a very tight Conservative-Labour marginal which I have polled twice before, finding a tie both times.

"My latest survey, completed yesterday, found the Tories with a one-point lead – a statistically insignificant movement that leaves the seat too close to call.”

The Lord Ashcroft polls involve 1,000 voters interviewed by telephone in each key constituency between April 22 and 28.

Despite the narrowness of margins, bookmakers have said most money is being put on Mr Buckland to hold the seat, with Ladbrokes putting him at 1/2.

However, spread-betting firm Sporting Index changed their position on seeing the poll results, saying the Solicitor General is currently trading at 16 on the index, whereas Labour’s Snelgrove is trading at 19, a reversal on the morning scores.

A punter who 'buys' Robert Buckland at 16 would win nine times their stake if he were to win, whereas they would lose six times their stake if he finished second.

Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "Polling by Lord Ashcroft released today has heaped further pressure on Robert Buckland in Swindon South, and Sporting Index now make Anne Snelgrove favourite to take back the seat lost to the Tories in the 2010 election.

“Many observers had been banking on a large portion of UKIP voters returning to the Tories, but Ashcroft’s poll indicates that hasn’t happened.

“If Snelgrove does win on 7th May, it could signal a widespread move towards Labour nationally. Swindon South is only 55th on Labour’s target seat list and if the party can win here, it may well be a disappointing evening for the Cameron and Co.”

Earlier Mr Fulton said: "There will certainly be twists and turns in the road ahead for both candidates.

"As quickly as fortunes can change for politicians, so do the markets. It’s still all to play for.”