Swindon Town’s troubling run of form has left many fans fearing the possibility of relegation to the National League, but how possible is this?

With seven games left in Town’s season, they have an 11-point buffer to the bottom two, although 23rd-place Forest Green Rovers have a game in hand. Colchester United and Grimsby Town, who are on the edge of the relegation zone, also have games in hand on Town during the final six weeks of the season.

If we look historically, in the last nine seasons, the highest points total that the team in 22nd has had is 48 points, meaning Town would only need four points from their last seven in that worst-case scenario. In the 21/22, 18/19, and 15/16 seasons, they would already be safe. Only Barnet and Stockport County have needed 50 or more points this century.

Something that could count against Swindon is that they don’t have many games left against teams with nothing to play for, with bottom-of-the-pile Sutton United and Grimsby to come away from home and play-off hopefuls AFC Wimbledon, Barrow AFC, Walsall, and Morecambe. Four of their remaining games are away from home, where they have only three wins all season.

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There is greater solace to be found in the fixtures lists of those beneath them. Forest Green are the side having to give chase and they have to run a real gauntlet. Three of their remaining eight games are away against sides in the top five, as well as welcoming Stockport and Milton Keynes Dons to The New Lawn.

Colchester still have to play all of the current top three, as well as play-off chasing Newport County and Crewe Alexandra on the final day.

Grimsby hold the cards with games in hand, but they also take on three of the top seven and Colchester, giving at least one of them one fewer game to catch Town.

Salford City have trips to three sides chasing the play-offs, although their home games with Sutton, Bradford City, and Harrogate Town all seem eminently winnable.

Sutton have a slightly kinder set of remaining fixtures, aside from Stockport and MK Dons, but they would need at least five wins from seven to overtake Swindon even if their three consecutive defeats become ten by May.

So, in all likelihood, Swindon are not still in danger of the drop this time around, as alarming as the current downward trajectory is.