Scientific research supported by funding from the Swindon-based Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council predicts that the range and severity of the plant disease phoma stem canker is increased by global warming and will cause problems to the food chain.

The team of biologists and mathematicians from Rothamsted Research found that warmer winters significantly advanced the date of stem canker appearance in spring and this could cause havoc with oilseed rape and brassica harvests.

Worldwide losses from this canker costs £450m at the moment and losses will be worse as the climate changes.

They also predicted that epidemics will spread north from England to Scotland, where cankers do not currently occur on oilseed rape.

The research was part of a programme of work to reduce reliance on use of pesticides in crop protection.

These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems.

Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife.