Swindon likely to be hit hard by Covid-19 fallout and no-deal Brexit, say reports

One report, by the international Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, says the UK's economy will be one of the most affected by the shutdown introduced to stop the spread of Covid-19.

A separate report, by the Social Market Foundation think-tanks, puts Swindon is in the top 10 council areas in the UK which could most vulnerable to a combination of the lockdown and the impact of the UK leaving the EU.

The OECD report into the world economy in June says Italy, France and the UK could all suffer a 12 per cent decline in gross domestic product, with that increasing to 14 per cent if there is a second wave of the virus.

It said: “The United Kingdom has been relatively hard hit by the Covid-19 crisis. Transmission within the UK was first documented on February 28 and the virus has spread rapidly.

"As a service-based economy, the UK is heavily affected by the crisis. Trade, tourism, real estate and hospitality are all hard hit by confinement restrictions.”

The Social Market Foundation report says the places most likely to be badly affected are those with an economy more reliant on manufacturing and finance, baking and insurance.

It says 56 per cent of Swindon’s Gross Value Added – a measure of a place’s net economic contribution – is dependent on a combination of manufacturing and finance and insurance.

The town is home two significant car plants at Honda and BMW-Mini and is the headquarters for major financial institutions like Zurich and Nationwide.

The think-tank says 37,400 jobs – 34 per cent of the total in the borough – are in manufacturing or the finance and insurance sector. It says these have been impacted by coronavirus and will particularly feel the force of a no-deal Brexit.

The leader of the council's Labour group Jim Grant said: “Swindon faces an economic challenge bigger than the one it faced in the 1980s when the railway works closed. At that time, we had a council with the vision and courage to make decisions which transformed the economic base of the town.

“The time has come for a council with equal vision and courage to regenerate Swindon based on a green economic future. It will need not only to solve these immediate problems but also start to combat those future ones which will be caused by climate change.

“Swindon’s recovery from the pandemic in a post-Brexit future will require activity from local government in the education sector as well as action from the national government to help local governments, such as Swindon’s, to protect their local economies and jobs.

"The Labour group will continue to press for the widest possible engagement between ourselves, the public and the administration in the post Covid-19 recovery process.”

Council leader David Renard has taken responsibility for the town’s economic recovery.

He said: “There is no doubt the coronavirus pandemic will have a major impact on economies and countries across the world.

“Our focus at the council is to ensure that here in Swindon we bounce back as quickly as possible. The signs so far are incredibly positive with companies already identifying our town as the ideal place to invest and create jobs.

"Only last week developer Panattoni was granted planning permission to invest £400m at our new employment site at Symmetry Park, creating more than 2,000 jobs. This is in addition to the £17m Whitbread plans to spend on a new Premier Inn and restaurants in the town centre and Zurich’s new £35m office block which will ensure one of our major employers remains in Swindon for years to come.

“We also have exciting plans for Kimmerfields and the town centre, not to mention more than £100m that is already being invested in major infrastructure projects across the borough, including at junctions 15 and 16 of the M4, consolidating Swindon’s fantastic location and connectivity, unlocking homes and jobs in two major urban extensions.

"Swindon has shown great resilience to economic shocks in the past and I am confident it will do so again. This includes the work the council is doing with the government to develop £50m worth of scheme proposals to reinvigorate the town as part of the Swindon Town Deal and Future High Streets Fund submission.”

A different report by the Centre for Cities is more optimistic for the town.

It says of 805 towns in the UK Swindon is likely to be only the 467th most affected. In its analysis of the share of jobs affected, Swindon is no more at risk than Milton Keynes, Manchester and Birmingham.