THE UK economy is ultimately downward, no matter which political party comes to power. For banks and politicians do not understand industry or what creative innovative economics are all about. Consequently the system stays as it is and where things never change. For a report some 10 months ago from Oxford Economics and the National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts (NESTA) argued that boosting manufacturing's share of economic output across the board was "implausible". It suggested that a focus on high technology sectors was the most realistic option, but where this would not necessarily create large numbers of jobs.

The problem with both the above organisations is that they simply do not live in the real world of industrial creativity to develop whole new industrial bases – something that we vitally need as a nation. In respect of NESTA, where the writer and over 40 globally eminent scientists from the foundation advised on its creation, this organisation was dead before it even started as the people and the application thereafter was a total economic failure. Nothing of substance has emerged, as those running NESTA have not a clue how to establish new industrial bases.

The coalition government has made rebalancing of our economy a high priority. The forecasting group Cambridge Econometrics (CE) looked at the future shape of the economy under their thinking. They concluded that manufacturing’s share of economic output will continue to decline and that financial and business services will carry on expanding to the highest share in modern times. Added to this, the government share (public services) will fall back to where it was in 2000 before the big spending increases under Labour. So by 2020, CE says that the UK will be even more of a service based economy. Therefore there will be no rebalancing of the economy. NESTA reinforced this by stating that business services are the largest contributor to growth and will continue to be central to the UK economy. Consequently we have to realise now that we have to be radical with our thoughts if our future wealth is to be more and not less. Overall, we have therefore to start thinking ‘out-of-the-box’ and develop completely new industrial bases from scratch. This will mean the input of all the people of the United Kingdom and not the elitist system that has got us into the terrible state/mess that we find ourselves today. In this respect our independent innovators are our only source of international dominance according to the history of S&T and where they have created up to 54 per cent of the inventions that have made the modern world what it is today (Japanese and German research, 1980s and 1900s respectfully). Therefore we have to concentrate on this great gold-mine of creativity that resides in our independent innovators for our own long-term good. Otherwise we shall end up with a far, far lower GDP than India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and China in a mere 39 years from now. Strangely though, the coalition government make no mention whatsoever of the involvement or the significance of our innovators within their economic strategy and that is why it will in the end fail so miserably as usual. We have to start afresh and build new industrial bases!

DR DAVID HILL Executive Director World Innovation Foundation